Lately I’ve been struggling to keep working in place. Earlier I thought it was because I don’t have enough vacation, but I discovered that I was wrong to think that way. I discovered that after 5 days full vacation. Road trip actually where I visit 3 cities and 11 attractions, costing more than $700. Way to go to burn money.
In the last few months, I have been developing a great interest in Psychoanalysis. Particularly Freud and Lacan. The latter was because I watched many of Zizek videos on YouTube.
Today I watched a rich person, who had been recognized as Internet Guru on YouTube. He mentioned his philosophy of Life, how to handle the business as daily basis. It’s amazing to watch the way behind the mask, what was revealing beneath is not very dark place. It’s amazing to understand how people really work this way.
Pareto vs Survivorship Bias. I had this confusion when I was going to focus to which one of the activity that productive to me when doing business from internet.
Pareto principle is basically telling you that 80 percent of the results come from 20 percent of the effort. In order word, only focus on 20 percent that gains you the most results.
Pareto is said to be successfully accurate in economics, business, science, software, health, and other sort of things.
What bothers me is that Pareto is severely bias, not all 80% fitness comes from 20% effort because it might because that only 20% of the effort is needed instead of the 80% of the rest.
Well, that’s not quite helpful to understand the Pareto principle.
In another word: focus success and repeat success, or rinse or repeat. I have a problem with this statement, because of the law of uncertainty and quantum mechanics. Not all success can be repeated. Especially if you leave out the 80% of the factor and only follow the 20% of the result.
But majority of the population will follow Pareto. That’s just how it goes.
This also confuses me with Survivorship bias, which is contrary to the Pareto.
Survivorship bias is a bias that come from not knowing the failure, which 80% pareto has.
In survivorship bias, not knowing the failure is said to be not knowing the success also.
Like the comic above, you cannot conclude that just because a woman who lives over a hundred year causes by rum and cigars diet. That is the survivor factor. The failure factor (80%) comes from other woman who also had the diet and not survived (a.k.a dead).
In other word, you must not focus only on success, but also find the hidden failure that makes up the success.
So you must know the success and also the failure in order to claim the success, not just the 20% of it and ignore the 80% of the rest.
In real world, to apply this principle you must not read only success books to find what success people did, but you must also find what success people didn’t do.
However, it’s going to be a waste of time to get the 80% but it completes the understanding of how success mechanic work in pareto vs survivorship bias.
So which one will you follow?
Pareto or Survivorship Bias?
I liked Angel at first, when I was in my pre/early teens, but now I’m more of a Spike fan. I got tired of Angel’s sad puppy act, and Spike has a more complex story line.
Rest in peace, everyone.
An unfortunately eventful day. I always used to say spring was cursed, because that’s when the most of the bad things in my life happened, then summer replaced that. I wouldn’t quite say it’s up to curse level again yet, but it’s definitely a start. A cousin told Cynthia that my grandfather was in the hospital after falling down. I saw Pap Pap when my mom dragged me to the library near him to do her taxes. He didn’t look too good, even for his age, and he said that he’d been getting dizzy. It seems that’s what happened today. When we tracked down what hospital he’s in my mom spoke to him and his nurses. He’s fine, but they want to keep him overnight for observation. Apparently they’re concerned with some of the answers he’s giving them. One question they asked was “How are you getting your meals?” His reply? “Oh, I get them.” Typical Pap Pap answer, but that makes them think he either hit his head when he fell, or that he’s senile. So they’re going to run some tests on him.
WDisney’s preliminary hearing is tomorrow, and mommy dearest is getting her stitches out then too. I pissed her off several times today when she was complaining once again that she doesn’t know where she’s going to go, and doesn’t know where she’s going to work. She says she looks like Frankenstein’s monster and no one will want to hire her, in addition to the fact she’s old. I can give her advice, but she won’t take it and will only get angry. I know they say not everyone is looking for advice when they’re venting, and they just want to be heard, but she has been heard plenty of times. There are things she could do but she won’t do them. Another reason I made her angry is because she found out today that Nita sent me a card, but not her. She asked me how much money Nita sent me and I prefaced my answer by stating that I wasn’t going to give it to her, so there’s no point in asking. Mommy dearest got angry about that, but with her track record (she took all of the money Nita sent me one year without telling me, which she still owes me for, she took Pap Pap’s money from me one time without telling me, plus many more times). She said it doesn’t matter since only my name is on the card, but that’s never stopped her before. If I was living with her she’d just take the money and never tell me I’d gotten a card.
As soon as I write that something “interesting” happens. Wdisney is in jail again for beating the shit out of my mother again. Apparently her face is all bruised and she has stitches in her head. I guess the incident happened on Monday or Tuesday. I called her on Monday because I thought the psycho was at work, I don’t bother calling when he’s there because he listens in and won’t stop talking to her while she’s on the phone (like a little kid). She says he’s been crazier than usual since her birthday when she went out with Cyndy, then me, and Bonnie on Friday. My mom was at Cyndy’s on Sunday, but Cyndy wouldn’t let her stay there even though she was going away, so my mom went back home. Now my mom says she’s not going to bother asking Cyndy for any help. I don’t blame Cyndy for not wanting her there, what if he came looking for her? And she’s probably sick of my mom’s drama. I know I am. I delicately tried to remind her that we all told her last summer not to go back with him. But no, she had to pick the crazy, angry, druggie, and not the nice guy. And now Randy has a girlfriend, so that option is out. I will never forgive her for that, and I have zero pity for her. She got herself into this mess and had plenty of outs, but no. “Wdisney is nice, he’s funny, he’s” blah blah blah. Yeah, he’s real nice and funny when he’s not fighting with her or beating her up. No wonder that crackhead can’t get a legitimate job, despite being so talented (oh, he’s a chef, musician, singer, mechanic, handyman). I wonder what his full criminal record looks like. My mom has been thinking about some things, which I can’t post here because this is public. While I doubt that Neanderthal is capable of even turning on a computer letting alone searching for someone, I have to be careful. In any case I don’t think she’ll leave him, it’d be a big surprise if she does.
Comcast’s bill was mailed in late so the internet is disconnected right now. I’m using the neighbors horribly slow wireless. It takes several minutes for pages to load, if it loads at all, so I’m not using it too much. Maybe my internet will be back on by tomorrow. An icon will be added when I can.
Two basically good days. My mood has been yo-yoing between hopeful and despondent for the past few weeks, but yesterday I was in a very good mood. Cyndy took me out and I got to go to Red Lobster. I get to go there once a year or less so it was a very nice treat for me. I got my usual, crab linguini alfredo. Didn’t get the chocolate wave cake, after everything Cyndy does for me I couldn’t ask for something else. And no more chocolate for me now since I’ve given it up for Lent. After we got out of Red Lobster Cyndy took me to Best Buy, she was talking about getting me a printer for me and a new computer for herself, though not right now. Her computer of 10 years finally kicked the bucket, so she’s thinking about getting either a laptop or a tablet. Since she had time I got to look around. The Best Buy wasn’t great, the one near South Hills Village is bigger and has more things, but it was still a lot of fun. I love technology, it was great getting to look at everything. If you don’t love technology you can’t imagine how wonderful it is to be let loose in a store like that. The biggest TV I found there (though not the biggest I know of) was 70 inches. It was incredible.
Cynthia went to church yesterday, and I asked if I could go today with her for Ash Wednesday. :angel: First Presby doesn’t normally do ashes, but they did this time. I didn’t do it because I didn’t want to get up in front of everyone, but Cynthia did. Since it was a weekday service it was shorter than it usually is. I wasn’t very good. I was quiet, but I kept getting distracted. I didn’t sing, not that there was a whole lot of singing, more of a mumbling. I also didn’t close my eyes and put my head forward to pray, but anyone who saw me wasn’t either so they have no right to say anything.
We went to Eat n Park after. I broke some sort of rule and had chicken, Cynthia had fish. When we got home of course Cynthia had to tell everyone that I went, and even my mother was acting shocked like “didn’t the church cave in?” I am a Christian, I was raised Christian, this isn’t anything new (though the whole going to church thing is). Just because I don’t shout it from the rooftops or try to force other people to believe what I do doesn’t mean I’m not. And I love that church. It is so beautiful. I don’t care how wonderful other churches are, to me the First Presbyterian Church of Pittsburgh is the most beautiful church in the world. It is so gothic, awe inspiring, and has huge Tiffany’s stained glass windows. I just love it. However I do not love the views of the people who have control of it right now. They’re evangelical, and however much Cynthia disagrees with that term they are self-described “bible-centered evangelical.” Their website is a whole lot of conservative. They support a bunch of evangie missions, crisis pregnancy centers, and the fake jews. What was most infuriating for me is they support evangelical missions in Africa. They are responsible for the witch hunts in Africa, and people like Helen Ukpabio. And they are so blind and ignorant to it, or they just don’t care. Maybe these crazies even support it. First Presby also had some people at the 40 Days for Life crap, but in the picture it only showed like 5 people. The church isn’t that popular so they feel they have to change. Their solution? Become more crazy. Because their conservative church isn’t getting people in the pews, they think their problem is they aren’t conservative enough. o.O That’s the way the conies think. One woman who came in today said she was going to drag people in off the streets, and laughed. Yeah… That’s the spirit lady. I know she was joking, but that’s the kind of point of view they have, and I’ve already stated I’m against that sort of thing. The sermon today wasn’t even slightly political, so that was good. If they got into actual politics, like the repug candidates, they better not do it while I’m there, because I won’t hesitate to report them. Cynthia was telling me about some candle thing the church does on Maundy Thursday where each person gets a candle, they’re lit, and all the lights are out. I asked if she goes if I can go too and she said yes. So if you hear about a church in Pittsburgh burning down on Maundy Thursday I probably dropped my candle. I’ll be holding onto it for dear life. That’s if I go, and after reading the Wikipedia page about it I might not want to! Apparently some churches have people read scripture, and then they snuff out their candle when they finish, and I’m not reading anything out loud! FPCP didn’t do that in the past, Cynthia would have said so, but since they’re changing other things…
Since I’ve been out of internet I’ve finally started the rest of the winter anime season I’ve been meaning to. I don’t like The Knight in the Area very much, even though FukuJun is sorta in it. I’m actually enjoying Ano Natsu de Matteru, despite it not being my kind of thing. I’ve already been watching Senki Zesshou Symphogear, Another, and Inu X Boku SS. Symphogear is stupid of course, but if you accept it as stupid and treat it as a ridiculous comedy it can be somewhat enjoyable. I love horror and there needs to be more horror anime so of course I like Another well enough. It’s not wonderful, but good enough. Inu X Boku I don’t like at all, it’s so annoying. I still have to start Brave 10, that pirates one, that daily/boys/life one, and some others. I was trying to copy their titles but that made explorer crash so I’m not going to do that again. It’s all because of this stupid 10 bit shit they’re all doing now. I can’t play it in VLC or KMP, and it makes explorer crash. I think it’s because I have DivX installed, but I can’t uninstall it because I need it for a video site I use. Or maybe it’s just because 10 bit is useless, elitist crap we don’t need!
As for the title, most people know one of those. If you don’t, you probably are one! I’m definitely going to watch GCB when it starts.