Tag: life (page 1 of 5)

Pareto vs Survivorship Bias?

pareto vs survivorship bias

Pareto vs Survivorship Bias. I had this confusion when I was going to focus to which one of the activity that productive to me when doing business from internet.

Pareto principle is basically telling you that 80 percent of the results come from 20 percent of the effort. In order word, only focus on 20 percent that gains you the most results.

Pareto is said to be successfully accurate in economics, business, science, software, health, and other sort of things.

What bothers me is that Pareto is severely bias, not all 80% fitness comes from 20% effort because it might because that only 20% of the effort is needed instead of the 80% of the rest.

Well, that’s not quite helpful to understand the Pareto principle.

In another word: focus success and repeat success, or rinse or repeat. I have a problem with this statement, because of the law of uncertainty and quantum mechanics. Not all success can be repeated. Especially if you leave out the 80% of the factor and only follow the 20% of the result.

But majority of the population will follow Pareto. That’s just how it goes.

This also confuses me with Survivorship bias, which is contrary to the Pareto.
Survivorship bias is a bias that come from not knowing the failure, which 80% pareto has.

In survivorship bias, not knowing the failure is said to be not knowing the success also.

Like the comic above, you cannot conclude that just because a woman who lives over a hundred year causes by rum and cigars diet. That is the survivor factor. The failure factor (80%) comes from other woman who also had the diet and not survived (a.k.a dead).

In other word, you must not focus only on success, but also find the hidden failure that makes up the success.

So you must know the success and also the failure in order to claim the success, not just the 20% of it and ignore the 80% of the rest.

In real world, to apply this principle you must not read only success books to find what success people did, but you must also find what success people didn’t do.

However, it’s going to be a waste of time to get the 80% but it completes the understanding of how success mechanic work in pareto vs survivorship bias.

So which one will you follow?

Pareto or Survivorship Bias?

Half a Century and No Common Horse Sense

An unfortunately eventful day. I always used to say spring was cursed, because that’s when the most of the bad things in my life happened, then summer replaced that. I wouldn’t quite say it’s up to curse level again yet, but it’s definitely a start. A cousin told Cynthia that my grandfather was in the hospital after falling down. I saw Pap Pap when my mom dragged me to the library near him to do her taxes. He didn’t look too good, even for his age, and he said that he’d been getting dizzy. It seems that’s what happened today. When we tracked down what hospital he’s in my mom spoke to him and his nurses. He’s fine, but they want to keep him overnight for observation. Apparently they’re concerned with some of the answers he’s giving them. One question they asked was “How are you getting your meals?” His reply? “Oh, I get them.” Typical Pap Pap answer, but that makes them think he either hit his head when he fell, or that he’s senile. So they’re going to run some tests on him.

WDisney’s preliminary hearing is tomorrow, and mommy dearest is getting her stitches out then too. I pissed her off several times today when she was complaining once again that she doesn’t know where she’s going to go, and doesn’t know where she’s going to work. She says she looks like Frankenstein’s monster and no one will want to hire her, in addition to the fact she’s old. I can give her advice, but she won’t take it and will only get angry. I know they say not everyone is looking for advice when they’re venting, and they just want to be heard, but she has been heard plenty of times. There are things she could do but she won’t do them. Another reason I made her angry is because she found out today that Nita sent me a card, but not her. She asked me how much money Nita sent me and I prefaced my answer by stating that I wasn’t going to give it to her, so there’s no point in asking. Mommy dearest got angry about that, but with her track record (she took all of the money Nita sent me one year without telling me, which she still owes me for, she took Pap Pap’s money from me one time without telling me, plus many more times). She said it doesn’t matter since only my name is on the card, but that’s never stopped her before. If I was living with her she’d just take the money and never tell me I’d gotten a card.

Psycho Patrol Again

As soon as I write that something “interesting” happens. Wdisney is in jail again for beating the shit out of my mother again. Apparently her face is all bruised and she has stitches in her head. I guess the incident happened on Monday or Tuesday. I called her on Monday because I thought the psycho was at work, I don’t bother calling when he’s there because he listens in and won’t stop talking to her while she’s on the phone (like a little kid). She says he’s been crazier than usual since her birthday when she went out with Cyndy, then me, and Bonnie on Friday. My mom was at Cyndy’s on Sunday, but Cyndy wouldn’t let her stay there even though she was going away, so my mom went back home. Now my mom says she’s not going to bother asking Cyndy for any help. I don’t blame Cyndy for not wanting her there, what if he came looking for her? And she’s probably sick of my mom’s drama. I know I am. I delicately tried to remind her that we all told her last summer not to go back with him. But no, she had to pick the crazy, angry, druggie, and not the nice guy. And now Randy has a girlfriend, so that option is out. I will never forgive her for that, and I have zero pity for her. She got herself into this mess and had plenty of outs, but no. “Wdisney is nice, he’s funny, he’s” blah blah blah. Yeah, he’s real nice and funny when he’s not fighting with her or beating her up. No wonder that crackhead can’t get a legitimate job, despite being so talented (oh, he’s a chef, musician, singer, mechanic, handyman). I wonder what his full criminal record looks like. My mom has been thinking about some things, which I can’t post here because this is public. While I doubt that Neanderthal is capable of even turning on a computer letting alone searching for someone, I have to be careful. In any case I don’t think she’ll leave him, it’d be a big surprise if she does.

Good Christian Bitches

Comcast’s bill was mailed in late so the internet is disconnected right now. I’m using the neighbors horribly slow wireless. It takes several minutes for pages to load, if it loads at all, so I’m not using it too much. Maybe my internet will be back on by tomorrow. An icon will be added when I can.

Two basically good days. My mood has been yo-yoing between hopeful and despondent for the past few weeks, but yesterday I was in a very good mood. Cyndy took me out and I got to go to Red Lobster. I get to go there once a year or less so it was a very nice treat for me. I got my usual, crab linguini alfredo. Didn’t get the chocolate wave cake, after everything Cyndy does for me I couldn’t ask for something else. And no more chocolate for me now since I’ve given it up for Lent. After we got out of Red Lobster Cyndy took me to Best Buy, she was talking about getting me a printer for me and a new computer for herself, though not right now. Her computer of 10 years finally kicked the bucket, so she’s thinking about getting either a laptop or a tablet. Since she had time I got to look around. The Best Buy wasn’t great, the one near South Hills Village is bigger and has more things, but it was still a lot of fun. I love technology, it was great getting to look at everything. If you don’t love technology you can’t imagine how wonderful it is to be let loose in a store like that. The biggest TV I found there (though not the biggest I know of) was 70 inches. It was incredible.

Cynthia went to church yesterday, and I asked if I could go today with her for Ash Wednesday. :angel: First Presby doesn’t normally do ashes, but they did this time. I didn’t do it because I didn’t want to get up in front of everyone, but Cynthia did. Since it was a weekday service it was shorter than it usually is. I wasn’t very good. I was quiet, but I kept getting distracted. I didn’t sing, not that there was a whole lot of singing, more of a mumbling. I also didn’t close my eyes and put my head forward to pray, but anyone who saw me wasn’t either so they have no right to say anything.

We went to Eat n Park after. I broke some sort of rule and had chicken, Cynthia had fish. When we got home of course Cynthia had to tell everyone that I went, and even my mother was acting shocked like “didn’t the church cave in?” I am a Christian, I was raised Christian, this isn’t anything new (though the whole going to church thing is). Just because I don’t shout it from the rooftops or try to force other people to believe what I do doesn’t mean I’m not. And I love that church. It is so beautiful. I don’t care how wonderful other churches are, to me the First Presbyterian Church of Pittsburgh is the most beautiful church in the world. It is so gothic, awe inspiring, and has huge Tiffany’s stained glass windows. I just love it. However I do not love the views of the people who have control of it right now. They’re evangelical, and however much Cynthia disagrees with that term they are self-described “bible-centered evangelical.” Their website is a whole lot of conservative. They support a bunch of evangie missions, crisis pregnancy centers, and the fake jews. What was most infuriating for me is they support evangelical missions in Africa. They are responsible for the witch hunts in Africa, and people like Helen Ukpabio. And they are so blind and ignorant to it, or they just don’t care. Maybe these crazies even support it. First Presby also had some people at the 40 Days for Life crap, but in the picture it only showed like 5 people. The church isn’t that popular so they feel they have to change. Their solution? Become more crazy. Because their conservative church isn’t getting people in the pews, they think their problem is they aren’t conservative enough. o.O That’s the way the conies think. One woman who came in today said she was going to drag people in off the streets, and laughed. Yeah… That’s the spirit lady. I know she was joking, but that’s the kind of point of view they have, and I’ve already stated I’m against that sort of thing. The sermon today wasn’t even slightly political, so that was good. If they got into actual politics, like the repug candidates, they better not do it while I’m there, because I won’t hesitate to report them. Cynthia was telling me about some candle thing the church does on Maundy Thursday where each person gets a candle, they’re lit, and all the lights are out. I asked if she goes if I can go too and she said yes. So if you hear about a church in Pittsburgh burning down on Maundy Thursday I probably dropped my candle. I’ll be holding onto it for dear life. That’s if I go, and after reading the Wikipedia page about it I might not want to! Apparently some churches have people read scripture, and then they snuff out their candle when they finish, and I’m not reading anything out loud! FPCP didn’t do that in the past, Cynthia would have said so, but since they’re changing other things…

Since I’ve been out of internet I’ve finally started the rest of the winter anime season I’ve been meaning to. I don’t like The Knight in the Area very much, even though FukuJun is sorta in it. I’m actually enjoying Ano Natsu de Matteru, despite it not being my kind of thing. I’ve already been watching Senki Zesshou Symphogear, Another, and Inu X Boku SS. Symphogear is stupid of course, but if you accept it as stupid and treat it as a ridiculous comedy it can be somewhat enjoyable. I love horror and there needs to be more horror anime so of course I like Another well enough. It’s not wonderful, but good enough. Inu X Boku I don’t like at all, it’s so annoying. I still have to start Brave 10, that pirates one, that daily/boys/life one, and some others. I was trying to copy their titles but that made explorer crash so I’m not going to do that again. It’s all because of this stupid 10 bit shit they’re all doing now. I can’t play it in VLC or KMP, and it makes explorer crash. I think it’s because I have DivX installed, but I can’t uninstall it because I need it for a video site I use. Or maybe it’s just because 10 bit is useless, elitist crap we don’t need!

As for the title, most people know one of those. If you don’t, you probably are one! I’m definitely going to watch GCB when it starts.

She Actually Called Me

My idiot mother just called. I was going to call her because a letter came from storage saying she hasn’t paid yet. I didn’t want to call her because she’s 49 and is old enough to know how to pay her bills. But I know she probably put my SS card in there and I need that. She called me a few minutes later so… Then she started crying and saying she’s so depressed she wants to kill herself blah blah blah It was hard to understand her because she was sniffling. She hasn’t started looking for a job yet because she doesn’t know where she’s going to live. Blah blah blah things will get better she says. And then says she’s saying that for herself too. I know everything is about her. She’s staying at Cyndy’s while she’s in California. And I’m not getting internet until the end of the month or early October because Cyndy’s not coming back until the 23. Then idiot said she had to go because she was crying. Boo freaking hoo.

Why call someone if you’re crying? She just wanted to share how depressed she is. She’s not going to get any sympathy from me. I was going to put this on Twitter. I didn’t want to make a blog post for this because I wanted my status post to stay first, but it was too long. So I pinned the status post to first. When I’m done with everything I’ll put them in the actual order.

Since I had to make a whole post I might as well talk about something else. I started to watch some new shows. Ringer was last night, The Secret Circle tomorrow, then Revenge, and Pan Am. I’m just giving them a try. Ringer has exactly the kind of concept I hate, it’s super awkward, and I get… second hand embarrassment (or something?) from the characters and situations. Whenever I try to a new show I like to stick with it for at least a few episodes (I stuck through an entire series/season of Skins when I wasn’t sure about it!).

I didn’t like Ev’s new song the first time they performed it. I thought it might be because it was live, so I decided to wait until the studio version came out. It took me a bit to get used to the “Do what you what you want” part, which is what I didn’t like about it, but I really like the song now. The video came out yesterday, which I have to say I don’t like, but I so rarely like music videos so that’s nothing out of the ordinary. What You Want is a good start, can’t wait to hear the rest of the album.

I don’t have my icons uploaded yet, so no avatar for this post. I have to go back to fixing my fanlistings. I’m only on the b’s right now…

Moving to New Host

I am currently in the process of moving to a new host. I will make a more detailed post in the near future, but right now I am focused on getting everything up and working.

What’s Going On Part II

This is the third time I’m writing this. All I feel like saying is that my mother is a liar and I’m not going to be living where I want to. I called Cyndy and she said she’ll call Comcast on Thursday. So I should have my own internet the week after this one.

A Little Late Summer Cleaning

Because spring cleaning never happened. While searching my site for malware the other day, I also did a little maintenance removing all the old and unneeded files from my site. I thought I should do so for my others sites and my computer as well, as it’s long overdue. I ran WP-Optimize on my WordPress and it got the file down to 2 MB, when it had been over 15 MB. That made it much easier it download. I finally updated my WordPress because I haven’t in a very long time (and I don’t like the new look WP, or the font post text box). Next I cleaned up my desktop which was completely covered in files, and changed the wallpaper. It actually wasn’t the one in the sidebar at the bottom of the page, I’ve had several different wallpapers since then.

Then I cleared out a folder on my computer, but that’s all I’m going to take that slowly, because just that one was annoying enough. This is why my computer and domains get so cluttered, but I hate tedious things! After that I ran CCleaner, now I’m running Windows Defender, then after that Malwarebytes scan, and Norton scan. This is going to take forever. But you can never be too careful. I’m also have a lot to do with my browsers too. I finally closed all my Firefox windows (I had about 25 open) and I’ve cut down on my Chrome windows (only 19 open right now!) as well. I’ve also exported my bookmarks to both Delicious and Google, and I’m clear out the ones actually on the computer. I have over 1000, many of them Pinterest pages (I don’t know why I didn’t just re-pin the images I liked, instead of bookmarking hundreds of pages, but I did).

My technology aren’t the only ones getting work done today, my poor Allie cat had to have some maintenance of her own. Her brush just isn’t good enough for her, it’s more suited to short haired cats and can’t get the undercoat, and my senile old lady isn’t cleaning herself as thoroughly as she used to. That means she’s getting lumps. So I gave up on her brush, and tried the fine toothed end of a comb I never used. OMG I didn’t know she had that much fur on her! I don’t know how she has any left after all the brushing I did. Clump after clump of all fur came off her. I’m still not done, and I haven’t gotten any of the matted fur off her yet, because she’s a cat and very disagreeable. She somewhat put up with it for a while because she likes getting brushed, but she didn’t like the comb getting caught on her. And she also doesn’t like to stay in one place while getting brushed, and constantly moves around, making it very difficult. I’ve got many a scratch on me now from trying to make her sit still.

Mommy dearest didn’t call this weekend despite her saying “I can’t go that long without talking to you!!!eleventy” :side: (I just realized I don’t have a sufficient eye roll smiley…) She’s gone weeks without talking to me before, I know she can last a weekend. Maybe she’ll call today. I need to know whether she’s really going through with this or not, because there are things I’d have to do before moving, like having my last baby tooth pulled. :hick:

And Irene Is My Mother’s Middle Name

I didn’t find out about Hurricane Irene’s path until yesterday. I knew there was a hurricane coming, but I just thought hurricane + August = normal. I know it was headed to the eastern coast until yesterday. It’s a good thing my plan to go to Maryland didn’t come to fruition. Randy has vacation time right now, and my mom and I had wanted to go to Ocean City. Randy didn’t want to, and they went somewhere in PA instead. Thank God for that! My father’s side of the family lives in Maryland, so I got on Facebook for the first time in a while yesterday to see what was going on there. The hurricane isn’t affecting us much here, we’re just getting clouds from it, and it’s a little windy. Central and western PA are getting some storms and rain.

I had a bad night and morning on Thursday and Friday. I got two troubles from TFL saying my domain had been marked as an attack site. They didn’t say by who or give me any information about it. Google wasn’t blocking my domain, and I wasn’t getting any warnings from Norton. I spent 6 hours combing through every file and folder in my account and found nothing out of the ordinary. I submitted my sites to Norton and they marked them as clean. Finally, when Googling my domain I happened upon McAfee SiteAdvisor. McAfee itself didn’t mark the site as bad, but due to one bad rating by someone they consider to be a trusted, experienced reviewer (and who looks to me to be a spammer, due to the sheer volume of sites they review, and the fact they post the same review over and over again) they listed my site as risky. All the review said was “Reported” I checked all of’s list and my site didn’t appear on any of them. And I don’t see how my domain could be mistaken for any on there because I didn’t find any similar ones. Maybe something I said pissed the reviewer off and they did that to get back at me.

I don’t think it’s right that McAfee let’s people ruin a sites reputation without confirming what they said is true. I also don’t think the kind of reviews that person leaves are appropriate. Doesn’t McAfee have rules for reviewing? Why are users allowed to leave one word reviews? Reviewers should be required to actually review. If they say something is wrong with the site they should have to say what is wrong, where it is, what they were doing. And all reviews should have to be unique. Users shouldn’t be able to post the same review for every site. McAfee is one of the worst anti-virus programs and their site is obviously unreliable. I don’t understand why anyone uses them, when there’s Kaspersky, and even Norton. Norton may not be wonderful, but it gets the job done.

I contacted McAfee to dispute my sites rating, explaining that no other sites had found any problems with my domain, and that my site didn’t appear on any of’s listed, and that it doesn’t seem like it ever did. When I got on later someone from McAfee had gotten back to me, and my sites rating was fixed. At least their reply was prompt, and they fixed the problem quickly, though it could have been avoided altogether with more stringent rules. People deserve to be protected from malware and bad sites, but site owners deserve to be protected from unjust attacks on their reputation as well.

I don’t know if McAfee was the problem or not, because TFL hasn’t gotten back to me (all the responsibility is on the webmasters to reply and get everything done quickly, not the staff). But hopefully all this is resolved now.

Here’s What’s Going On

I’m doing this is a little earlier than I said I would, but the Psycho Patrol post is now public, with some parts removed. Edit: I am trying to edit the post and make it public but the stupid thing won’t save, it keeps timing out. Edit again: Okay, I just tried to post this, and it’s either my host or somethings wrong with WordPress because this won’t post either. Last Edit: Finally I got all of that updated. Took an hour to do it.

My mom called today and I asked her about that woman and she said that lady is definitely not coming now, and I can move in to Randy’s place in a week or so. First she has to clean up the “blue room” (called so because Randy painted it blue) for me. In terms of bedroom space I am actually downgrading, the blue room is half the size of Cynthia’s smallest bedroom, but Cynthia’s is an actual house and Randy owns a townhouse. As I said in the Psycho Patrol post it’s in a very lovely area, there’s air conditioning, Dish Network, internet, and lot’s of room for Allie to run around.

I’ve wanted Randy’s place since I stayed there for a week or so around my 16th birthday. While I fantasized about it many times I never thought I’d actually get to live there (of course when I imagined it the place was mine alone). This is actually the second time I (if I actually do, this all depends on my mother who is notoriously unreliable) have gotten to live in a place I’ve imagined living in, though in a different way. For a couple I had imagined living in the apartment I lived in when I was 5, before we moved to Arizona for the first time. And when I was 17 I got to move in to that house, though it was in the apartment downstairs. It ended up being horrible, and I after Wdisney moved in I moved back in with my great aunt Cynthia. I’m hoping this turns out much better.

Edit: I said I wouldn’t edit again, but I have to because I completely forgot: Mommy dearest has come up in the world since being with Randy. Randy has vacation time this week, so they’re going away for the weekend. I won’t say where since this isn’t private. Oh, and she got a kick out of me calling him Brigham Young. She said “I don’t do that”. I was like “what, a couple more women and you could have your own TV show!” :biggrin:

Randy has Verizon internet but even if I do move in there in a week I don’t have how long it’ll take me to get online with my computer because he may not know the code for the wireless, and I don’t know how well the wireless will work. It’s a townhouse, three floors, with the wireless router on the bottom floor. My computer will be on the third floor, and while it is a laptop I can’t move it around because it’s plug is messed up so I can’t be continuously plugging it in and unplugging it. So, once again I am saying… I’ll hopefully have internet in the next couple weeks. *sobbing* The state of the internet at the moment? I’ve gotten past Comcast’s blockade, but it’s still so I have to stay in a certain position for the internet to (sort of) work. It very temperamental and the slightest change can make it stop working, and it gets painful after a while.

I’ve set Netflix to streaming only for now, since the price for streaming and renting is going up. I hope they don’t erase my DVD queue because I’m going to switch it back after I put a dent in my streaming list. They didn’t when I put my account on hold, so they better not now. I have made a backup list in case they do though. I was very dismayed to find the animated Batman series aren’t streaming! I decided I wanted to start one since I’m such a big Dark Knight fan, Christopher Nolan’s third Batman movie was filming here, AND he said it’s the last one… I found that really disappointing, I wanted to seem more villains.

When I get stable internet back, besides watching Netflix, anime, and reading manga I have to update my Best Adoptables list. I’m a member of new adoptables sites now (some with really great sprites like World of Umbria), and my opinion has changed in different ways, some better some worse. Kingdom of Knuffel – much better. Magistream – much worse, stay away from this site! Some are the same, Subeta is still awesome, and so is VDex Project, two very good sites. Subeta had a plot in early August (plus we’re getting into event time and then it’ll be practially EVENTS NON STOP) and I did well enough considering the internet problems I was having. Oh, yeah and my Subetaversary is coming up! I don’t get anything for this one (for certain anniversaries you get a loyalty box and with it you can get another pet spot, or paint a pet any color you want, etc), but it’s still exciting! And VDex… Wish Jirachi Tanabata event in July, now we’re having three weeks of events (specially colored Shinx, Ponyta ending tomorrow, Pikachu after that), then an Absol event in September, and Litwick for Halloween. *more sobbing* They’re extremely simple, it’s just refreshing, but it gets mind numbing.


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